POLITICS TODAY

The opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai is encountering significant challenges, threatening its viability ahead of the 2027 general elections. Once a formidable force, the coalition is now facing a series of setbacks, with defections, internal divisions, and external rejections undermining its efforts to consolidate power.

Key Developments:

1. Mass Defections to the APC: A substantial number of Atiku’s supporters, particularly from the northern states, have defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). These individuals, previously part of the Coalition of Atiku Support Groups, cited improved security and economic conditions under President Bola Tinubu as reasons for their shift in allegiance.
2. Internal Struggles Within the PDP: The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku’s platform, is experiencing internal conflicts, particularly between factions loyal to him and those aligned with Nyesom Wike. These divisions have led to a lack of unity and coordination, weakening the party’s position ahead of the 2027 elections.
3. Resistance from Potential Allies: Atiku’s attempts to form a broader opposition coalition have been met with resistance. Leaders of the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), such as Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, have distanced themselves from any alliance with the PDP, citing concerns over power-sharing and past grievances. The rift exposes the growing disillusionment within the opposition ranks.
4. El-Rufai’s SDP Rejection: Further complicating matters, El-Rufai’s involvement with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has faced significant rejection from within the opposition coalition. His attempt to forge an alliance with the SDP has been met with resistance, particularly due to concerns over his influence and the potential divisive impact of his inclusion. This rejection is seen as another blow to the already fragile unity of the coalition.
5. APC’s Strategic Expansion: Amid these challenges, the APC is actively working to consolidate its position by welcoming defectors from opposition parties. This strategy aims to solidify its dominance and present a united front against any emerging opposition. The APC’s growing influence in key regions signals a strengthening of its position ahead of 2027 elections.
6. Meanwhile, APC governors of Yobe and Kebbi -Mai Mala Buni, Nasir Idris respectively have disowned reports speculating their move to join the Atiku Coalition.

These developments underscore the increasing fragility of the Atiku-El-Rufai coalition as defections, internal squabbles, and external rejections continue to erode its strength, while the APC steadily strengthens its ranks in preparation for the 2027 elections.