THE ARITHMETIC OF ATIKU’S IMPENDING FAILURE
By Yakubu Ahmed-BK
Both Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC and Peter Obi of the LP have the potentiality of amassing votes, in quantum, from the South West and the South East respectively in tomorrow’s presidential contest. Tinubu is expected to garner as much as 70% of the votes from the South West, ditto for Obi in the South East.
So, from which geo-political zone does Atiku Abubakar of the PDP expect to get even 60% solid votes? Can anybody guarantee an Atiku outright win in the North East? Are we talking of the North East where the golden boy of Nigerian politics, Senator Kashim Shettima is already doing the press-ups to give Atiku a bloody nose? There are solid indications, that Atiku Abubakar cannot achieve the 60% feat even in Adamawa state. If he cannot post any convincing win in the North East, how then can he hope to make the kind of showing in the North West and the North Central, to argument the beating that awaits him in both the South West and the South East?
Or can anybody foresee a 70% win for Atiku in the South South, to add up to the votes he may get in the North to make him president?
Come to think of it! In 2011, Muhammadu Buhari got in excess of 12 million votes in the North and yet did not become president. Can Atiku win as much on the average, in the North, to give him a good starting point to ever hope of a landslide? Let us assume, for the purpose of giving him a dog’s chance, that he gets 60% of the votes in the North, from where is he getting the volume and spread required to make him president? The emergence of Obi in the Labor Party and Kwankwaso in the NNPP has done incalculable damage to Atiku’s chances in the traditional stronghold of the PDP. Obi will eat up the Atiku’s harvest of votes in the South East and in parts of the Christian North, while Kwankwaso damages any chance he has of posing a threat to Tinubu in Kano and possibly in Katsina.
The fact of the matter is that Atiku and Tinubu will share the votes in the North with Tinubu having an edge. He will be roundly and soundly defeated in the South West and the South East while the South South becomes a battle ground for the three parties to box it out.
In the end, Atiku will be lucky to come third in this race. Tinubu will win it while Obi follows in the second position.
Ahmed-Bk is a veteran journalist and member of APC Presidential Council